The impact of US tariffs on the mold industry

I. Current Situation of Tariff Policies and Their Impact on Industries 

Tariff structure and exemption scope

Tax rate stratification: The tariff for precision injection molds (HS 8480.71) is 25%, with an additional 7% “Technical Safety surcharge”, while medical molds (such as molds for ventilator components) enjoy a provisional tariff of 5% (until the end of 2025);

Anti-circumvention review: The US customs has initiated a “third-country re-export” traceability mechanism (for example, molds exported through Vietnam need to provide full supply chain proof), and non-compliant enterprises will face a punitive tariff of 200%.

Changes in trade data

Export scale: In 2024, China’s mold exports to the United States decreased by 18.7% year-on-year (6.2 billion to 5.04 billion US dollars), but to the EU market increased by 23% (reaching 4.1 billion US dollars).

Share transfer: Mexico’s mold exports to the United States will soar from 900 million US dollars in 2020 to 3.8 billion US dollars in 2025, squeezing out part of China’s mid-to-low-end market.

The second one is three-dimensional impact analysis

Cost pressure and profit erosion

Comprehensive cost: 25% tariff + 10% logistics premium + 5% exchange rate fluctuation, which has compressed the company’s gross profit margin to 8-12%(18-22% in 2019).

 Typical case: A certain auto mold factory in Guangdong reduced its quotation for an order from the United States by 10%, but through AI design, it cut costs by 15% and maintained a stable net profit margin of 5.5%.

Reconstruction of regional industrial chains

Nearshore trend: Tesla requires Chinese suppliers to set up factories in Monterrey, Mexico (with a domestic production rate of ≥60%), and Ningbo Xusheng invests 420 million US dollars to build a North American base.

Technological decoupling: The export of high-end five-axis numerical control systems (such as DMG DMU 65) to China is restricted, forcing companies like Shanghai Weihong to increase the domestic substitution rate to 45%.

Technological blockade and innovation-driven pressure

Patent barriers: The US ITC cited Section 337 to restrict China’s 3D printing mold technology (involving Liantai Technology, etc.), promoting the joint efforts of universities and enterprises to solve the problem of domestic production of metal powder (reducing costs by 30%).

R&d investment: By 2025, the R&D intensity of the mold industry will be increased to 4.2%(1.8% in 2019), with a focus on breakthroughs in quantum mold simulation (Huawei Cloud) and integrated printing of conformal cooling water.

3. The coordinated response path between enterprises and policies

Diversified market layout

Emerging markets: The demand for molds in ASEAN is growing at an annual rate of 14% (mainly in home appliances and electronics), and Haier Molds has built a factory in Rayong Industrial Zone, Thailand (with an annual production capacity of 500,000 sets).

Domestic substitution: The self-sufficiency rate of molds for new energy vehicles in China will increase from 55% in 2020 to 82% in 2025 (BYD and CATL’s supply chain closed loop).

Technological leap strategy

Intelligent upgrade: The development cycle of AI mold design software (such as AutoMold 2025) has been shortened by 40%, and Suzhou Shengli Precision has introduced a digital twin system (reducing the number of mold trials by 70%).

 Material revolution: Carbon fiber – peek composite molds (50% weight reduction) replace traditional steel molds, avoiding the tariff classification of “steel products” in the United States.

 Policy tool hedging

 Export rebate: The rebate rate for molds has been raised from 9% to 13% (the new policy of the Ministry of Finance in 2024), increasing the cash flow of enterprises by approximately 12 billion yuan annually.

Free Trade agreements: Under the framework of RCEP, export tariffs on Indonesia/Malaysia have been reduced to 0-5%, and the China-Eu CAI Agreement has broken through the technical certification barriers of the European Union.

4. Long-term Trends and Industry Reshaping

Reconstruction of supply chain resilience

Dual circulation nodes: Dongguan Haoshun Mould has created a model of “R&D in Shenzhen + intelligent manufacturing in Dongguan + assembly in Southeast Asia”, with sensitive tariff links moved outward.

Modular division of labor: Mold components are split and assembled in Hungary (EU) and Vietnam (ASEAN), reducing the proportion of complete machine exports from 80% to 45%.

Green trade game

The impact of carbon tariffs: The United States plans to impose an 8% carbon tax on non-green power production molds (effective in 2026), forcing the green power penetration rate in the industry to exceed 60% (Longi’s photovoltaic direct supply plan has been implemented).

ESG financing: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China launched the “Mold Green Loan” (with an interest rate of 4.35%), Qingdao Haier Mold obtained a 5 billion yuan low-interest loan, and the green power utilization rate was 78%.

Competition for technological sovereignty

Quantum computing: Huawei Cloud’s Quantum Mold Simulation Service (QCS) optimizes efficiency by 300% and solves the design problem of conformal cooling water channels.

Breakthrough in industrial software: ZW3D 2025 version achieves Localization of five-axis programming (Compatibility up to 95%)

The impact of US tariffs on our factory is not significant. Our customers are not only those from the United States, but also from almost every country around the world. Most of our customers leave their molds in our factory, and we help them produce plastic products